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Hurricane
Preparedness Home Page
April
2nd, 2010 - The 2010 Hurricane Season Outlook
October
14th, 2009 - Featured on CNN Radio
July
8th, 2009 - My Blog
June 3, 2009
May, 2009
July, 2008
2010
Hurricane Season Predictions
Potential
Damage Multiplier
My Extensive
Hurricane Preparedness Checklists
Useful Links
About the Author
April
2nd, 2010 - The 2010 Hurricane Season Outlook
Once again, it looks like all of the weather wizards are calling
for this to be a very active hurricane season! Waters in
the Atlantic are at record high temperatures, exceeding those
that helped create Hurricanes Rita and Katrina in 2005.
Though the Gulf of Mexico waters are cooler than normal, that's
not expected to last long once the summer heat kicks in.
And the El Nino that helped keep hurricane activity to a minimum
last season is quickly weakening and is expected to be out of
the picture this year.
What do these predictions mean for those living in the
hurricane-prone regions of the nation? Though there's no
way to know if a storm will affect the area in which you live,
anticipated tropical storm and hurricane activity is expected to
be about 60% above the fifty-year norm. That is why I am
recommending that everyone is especially vigilant this hurricane
season, and to get their hurricane preparations underway
soon!
One of the most frequent
questions I receive is whether or not I recommend purchasing a
generator. What I tell folks is that a generator is like
insurance: If you ever need it, you'll certainly be glad you
have it! And if you're going to invest in a generator, but
sure to check out my advice by clicking on the Generators tab at
the top of this page.
Finally, my advice
continues to be the same: Hope for the best, plan for the
worst!
October
14th, 2009 - Featured on CNN Radio
On Friday, October 9th, I had the honor of being featured on CNN
Radio in Houston. Please note that
this file is quite large (approximately 15 meg) and may take a
few minutes to download.
Right-click here to download an MP3 copy of the show
July
8th, 2009 - My Blog
For even more hurricane preparedness information, check out my
blog at: http://HaskellOnHurricanes.blogspot.com
June 3, 2009
Today, I had the
opportunity to attend the ImpactWeather 20th Annual Hurricane
Seminar for Business and Industry. There were several
fascinating speakers who shared a wealth of information about
storms past, and the outlook for 2009.
Chris Hebert, Lead
Hurricane Forecaster for ImpactWeather had thirty minutes of
really useful information. This included data about
some of the storms that have hit Houston in the past, including
Hurricane Ike in 2008.
Also in attendance was Dr.
Phil Klotzbach, associate of Dr. William Gray, who is renowned
for his hurricane predictions. Dr. Klotzbach concluded his
talk by noting that he and Dr. Gray have lowered their forecast
for 2009 "based on a cooler-than-normal tropical Atlantic
and the greater potential for a weak El Nino during the bulk of
the hurricane season." The new numbers reflect 11
named storms (down from 12), five hurricanes (down from six),
and unchanged is the prediction for two major hurricanes
(category three or greater).
If you have the
opportunity to attend this seminar in the future, I highly
recommend it!
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May, 2009
As I write this, I'm
amazed at what has transpired since last year's update.
Indeed, 2008 was the year Houston finally got "the big
one" in the form of Hurricane Ike. It was what the
meteorologists had been warning us about for decades! Of
course, the big challenge now is to keep everyone from becoming
complacent and thinking that we probably won't see another
hurricane in Houston for another 20+ years. Indeed, having
another storm hit us this year would be considered a statistical
long shot. But keep in mind that Mine That Bird--a 50 to 1
long shot--just won the Kentucky derby! So though I hope
we've seen the last Houston hurricane for a very long time,
there's no guarantee that we won't experience another big storm
this year.
It was interesting to note
that in the two days before Ike hit, this web site received
roughly 30,000 hits from folks seeking hurricane preparedness
information. Though I'm glad they visited this site for
information, I find it alarming that so many folks wait until
the last minute before making preparations. You can save
yourself a lot of time, money and anxiety by making a list and
beginning your 2009 preparations today!
I hope you find the
information on this web site useful. If you have any
specific questions or comments, please drop me a line at
HurricaneHaskell@gmail.com.
For now, best wishes for quiet tropics and no
hurricanes. But as I keep saying: Hope for the best,
plan for the worst!
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July, 2008
If you live along one of the areas prone to hurricanes, then
hopefully you've taken some time to make preparations in case a
storm heads in your direction. Whether you're a seasoned
coastal veteran, or just getting started for the first time, the
material on this web site should help you with your hurricane
(and general emergency) preparedness.
As I am creating this
page, Brownsville, Texas is getting pounded by Hurricane
Dolly. If you live anywhere along the Gulf Coast, you
are susceptible to winds, rain, and possibly the storm surge
from a hurricane. Yet I'm amazed that many in the
potential strike zone of a hurricane never bother to make
preparations until the last minute.
Of all the dangerous
things that person can do is procrastinate their hurricane
preparations. If you don't believe you can get killed
trying to obtain gasoline, withdraw cash from an ATM, or buy the
last loaf of bread in a store right before a storm, then you
should have witnessed the madness in Harris County before
Hurricane Rita. Though most of the residents were orderly,
law abiding citizens, there were numerous reports of hot tempers
and desperate actions all across the area. By having your
supplies ahead of time and keeping your vehicle's gas tank at
least half full, you can greatly reduce your stress and chance
of running into danger before the storm even arrives.
In the Upper Texas Gulf
Coast region, we've become accustomed to having a week or more
of warning before a hurricane makes landfall. But roughly
75% of the storms that hit the Upper Texas Gulf Coast form in
the Gulf of Mexico, and often arrive with as little as two days
warning.
For years, the
meteorologist have been saying that Houston is overdue for
a hurricane. Statistically, we're long overdue!
However, the Dr. Gray's predictions and those of the National
Hurricane Center offer nothing more than a general predictor of
the chance for a storm in a given year. For example,
2006--the year after the deadly Hurricane Katrina--was predicted
to be another highly active season. Yet due to an strong El
Nino phenomenon, the season saw little activity. Back
in 1983, it was one of the quietest storm seasons on record,
with only four hurricanes. But one of those storms was
Hurricane Alicia, an early-season hurricane that did over $5
billion (in 2006 dollars) of damage to Harris County,
Texas.
So will 2008 be another
slow season, or is will this be the year that we get "the
big one?" Without a better crystal ball, it's
anyone's guess. So you might want to follow the first rule
of emergency preparedness: Hope for the best and plan for the
worst!
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2010
Hurricane Season Predictions
It's
worth noting that the high number on NOAA's
outlook is the highest they've ever forecasted!
The
peak of hurricane season (for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean
Sea, and the
Gulf of Mexico) is from mid-August to late October
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Potential
Damage Multiplier
The following chart is useful for illustrating that the
correlation between wind speed and estimated damage is not
linear, but exponential. In other words, a Category 2
hurricane will not cause roughly twice as much damage as a
Category 1, but ten times as much damage! Of
course, there are many variables in this equation that will
affect the results, and this is only to provide a rough rule of
thumb.
|
Saffir-Simpon
Hurricane Wind Scale
|
Wind
Speed Range (MPH) |
Potential
Damage Multiplier |
| Category
1 |
74
- 95 |
1 |
| Category
2 |
96
- 110 |
10 |
| Category
3 |
111
- 130 |
50 |
| Category
4 |
131
- 155 |
250 |
| Category
5 |
>
155 |
500 |
For
each category of increase in wind speed,
expect an exponential increase in damage
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My Extensive
Hurricane Preparedness Checklists
I think you will find this
comprehensive spreadsheet useful for almost every aspect of your
hurricane preparedness. It not only covers food and
supplies, but also has several checklist that covers everything
from home preparations to evacuation supplies.
Remember, you will need to customize this list for your
particular needs.
Click
here for the Hurricane
Checklist - Excel Format
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Useful Links
Hurricane & Weather
National
Weather Service - Houston
Nation
Hurricane Center
Harris
County Office of Emergency Management
Harris
County Office of Emergency Management - Evacuation Information
Weather
Radio SAME Codes
Mike's
Weather Page - Tons of Useful Links
FOX
Network Hurricane & Weather Information
Media
Eric
Berger's Hurricane Blog - Houston Chronicle
Harvard
School of Public Health - 2007 Article on Hurricane Preparedness
KPRC
Channel 2 - Evacuation Story
Fox
26 Hurricane Briefings
Fox
26 Story on Portable Digital TV Options
Amateur (HAM) Radio
Harris
County Amateur (HAM) Radio Emergency Service
Fox
News Houston - Segment on Ham Radio Operators
Miscellaneous
CenterPoint
Outage Tracker
CenterPoint
Outage StormCenter
Houston
Humane Society
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About the Author
My name is Haskell Moore, and 2010
makes my fifth year of teaching hurricane preparedness to
friends and co-workers. My training seems to have caught
on at my workplace, and I've now had the pleasure of several
thousand people attending my sessions. My goal is to
strive to keep the information on this site as fresh and current
as possible, and to help spread the word about how to get ready
and stay ready for a hurricane.
My sincere hope for you is that you
take a few minutes and read over this material (and the related
links), then start making some emergency preparedness plans of
your own. You only need to do a Google search on Hurricane
Katrina to read some of the horrific accounts of what happened
when an entire city was caught totally unprepared and society
broke down completely during one of the worst natural disasters
that has ever hit this nation. Then, you need to stop
living in denial, get off your backside, and start
stashing some food, water and supplies in case one of these
monsters blows into your area!
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amateur ham radio, Haskell Moore, W5HLM.
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